global warming
Climate models
July 19, 2011 | 
Author The alarm over global warming stems mainly the results of statistical simulations made based on numerical weather models and not direct observation of the evolution of real physical variables. When the concentration of greenhouse gases is increased in these simulations, nearly all of them show an increase in global temperature, especially in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the models currently used do not simulate all aspects of climate and make several wrong predictions for the current season: namely, provide twice the warming that has actually been observed and, for example, a pressure drop in the Indian Ocean, a very sensitive area for the global system, when we observe the opposite. Recent studies also indicate that the solar influence may be significantly higher than is assumed in the models.
Although there is talk of a consensus of a majority of scientists that better models would not change the conclusion that global warming is mainly caused by human action, there is also some consensus that it is probable that important climatic features are incorporated in the models being incorrectly climate. In fact, in these models, the parameters associated with the greenhouse effect are “tuned” so that initially the models provide a correct estimation of the temperature increase observed over the past 100 years (0.6 ° -0.7 ° C). That is, the simulations assume that is really the greenhouse effect which is the source of heating. If there are other unknown natural causes for global warming, such as those associated with the solar influence and the recovery from the Little Ice Age, they can not be included in modeling. In fact, the models can not make predictions but just make projections or assumptions about future climate based on simulations corresponding to various possible scenarios.
Most global climate models, when used to project future climate, is forced by scenarios of greenhouse gases. Less frequently, the models can be used by adding a simulation of the carbon cycle, it generally shows a positive response, although it is uncertain. Some observational studies also show a positive response.
These are limitations of the models used for predictions, which do not take into account the current lack of knowledge about the natural causes for temperature variations occurred during the last millennium, that cause many climatologists believe that part of the global warming caused by human action is much smaller than you think today.
Hansen Model
In September 2006, James Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at NASA, along with his colleagues, published in the journal ‘PNAS’, the National Academy of Sciences, a matter in which information is presented a detailed climate model improved since the 1980s, measurements and fed by satellites, ships and weather stations worldwide.
The study says that in the last 30 years the planet warmed 0.6 ° C, making a total increase of 0.8 ° C in the twentieth century. The current average temperature is the highest in the last 12,000 years, missing just 1 ° C to be the highest in the last million years.
According to Hansen, if warming increases the average temperature over 2 ° C or 3 ° C, the geographic setting of the planet will be radically different from today. The last time the Earth was so hot was 3 million years ago in the Pliocene epoch, when sea level was twenty-five meters higher than today.
It was found that warming was greatest in the north polar region, because the melting ice in the area exposed water, earth and rocks with darker colors, reducing the local albedo and, consequently, the absorption of solar heat was higher.
The water temperature is undergoing changes slower, but the heat was registered Indian and Pacific oceans, which causes phenomena such as El Niño are more significant in coming years.
Posted in global warming | 
Tags: Global Climate Models, Greenhouse Gases, Higher Latitudes, Numerical Weather Models, Physical Variables, Statistical Simulations | 
Comments Closed
Causes of global warming
Greenhouse effect
All energy sources that exist on Earth comes from the Sun. Most of the energy in the form of short-wave radiation, including visible light. When this energy is reached Earth’s surface, he changed from light into heat that warms the Earth. Earth’s surface, will absorb some heat and reflecting back the rest. Some of this heat is tangible long-wave infrared radiation into space. But some of the heat remains trapped in the Earth’s atmosphere due to accumulated amount of greenhouse gases such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and methane which trap the waves of this radiation. These gases absorb and reflect back the radiation emitted wave and consequently the Earth’s heat is stored in the Earth’s surface. This situation occurs continuously, resulting in an annual average temperature of the earth continues to rise.
These gases may act as a greenhouse gas. With the increasing concentration of these gases in the atmosphere, the more heat is trapped underneath.
The greenhouse effect is very much needed by all living things on earth, because without it, the planet will become very cold. With an average temperature of 15 ° C (59 ° F), the earth has actually hotter 33 ° C (59 ° F) from the original temperature, if there is no greenhouse effect the earth’s temperature is only -18 ° C so that ice will cover the entire Earth’s surface. However, on the contrary, if these gases in the atmosphere have been excessive, will cause global warming.
Feedback effects
Elements of the cause of global warming is also influenced by various feedback processes that result. An example is the evaporation of water. In the case of warming due to increasing greenhouse gases like CO2, warming will initially lead to more amount of water that evaporates into the atmosphere. Since water vapor is itself a greenhouse gas, warming will continue and increase the amount of water vapor in the air until it reaches an equilibrium concentration of water vapor. The resulting greenhouse effect is greater than the effect of CO2 alone. (Although this feedback to improve the absolute water content in the air, the air relative humidity is almost constant or even slightly decreased because the air becomes warmer). This feedback affects only slowly because of CO2 have longevity in the atmosphere.
Feedback effects due to the influence of clouds is becoming the object of current research. When viewed from below, clouds will reflect infrared radiation back to the surface, so that will increase the warming effect. In contrast when viewed from above, clouds will reflect sunlight and infrared radiation to space, thereby increasing the cooling effect. Is the net effect produces a heating or cooling depending on some specific details such as the type and height of the cloud. These details are difficult to be represented in climate models, partly because the clouds are very small when compared with the distance between the boundaries of computational climate models (about 125 to 500 km for the model used in the Fourth Report of the IPCC’s view). Nevertheless, cloud feedback is at number two when compared with water vapor feedback and is considered positive (adding heating) in all models used in the Fourth Report of the IPCC view.
Another important feedback is the loss of ability to reflect light (albedo) by ice. When global temperatures increase, ice near the poles melts at an ever increasing. Along with the melting of ice, land or water below it will open. Both land and water has the ability to reflect light much less when compared with ice, and consequently will absorb more solar radiation. This would increase the warming and cause more ice melts, it becomes a continuous cycle.
Positive feedback due to release of CO2 and CH4 from the softening of frozen soil (permafrost) are other mechanisms that contribute to warming. In addition, the melting ice will also cause release of CH4 are also positive feedback.
Posted in global warming | Tags: Cause Of Global Warming, Earths Atmosphere, Equilibrium Concentration, Gases In The Atmosphere, Greenhouse Effect, Greenhouse Gases | Comments Closed
Global Warming
The Earth receives an amount of solar radiation, mostly (91%) is absorbed by the atmosphere and the remainder (9%) reflected into space. The concentration of carbon originating mainly from burning fossil fuels, hinders or decreases the percentage of radiation the Earth reflects back into space. Thus, while not being radiated into space, the heat increases the mean surface temperature.
Due to air pollution and its effects, many scientists point out that global warming in the medium and long term may be irreversible. So now, should be taken to reduce emissions of gases that cause global warming. Other scientists, however, admit the increased content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but remember that much of this gas comes from the concentration of water vapor, which is independent of human activities. This controversy could delay the decision-making about the adoption of a policy that reduces the effects of increased average temperature on Earth.
The carbon in the atmosphere ensures a basic condition for the existence of life on earth: the temperature. The Earth is heated by infrared radiation emitted by the sun to a temperature of -27 ° C. These radiation reaching the surface and are reflected back into space. Carbon forms a protective dome that traps some of these and reflects infrared radiation back to the surface. This produces an increase of 43 ° C in global average temperature, keeping it around 16 ° C. Without the carbon in the atmosphere at the surface would be covered with ice. The excess carbon, however, tends to trap more infrared radiation, producing the greenhouse effect: the temperature rise of about to reduce or even stop the ice caps covering the poles. Scientists still do not agree that global warming is already occurring, but are concerned about the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at an average rate of 1% per year. The burning of vegetation in developing countries accounts for 25% of the increase. The largest source, however, is the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, especially in developed countries.
Raising the temperature
The earth’s temperature rise between 2 and 5 degrees Celsius, presumably, lead to changes in climatic conditions. Because of this, the greenhouse effect may cause the sea level rise, flooding coastal areas and desertification in some regions, affecting the agricultural land and thus food production.
Posted in global warming | Tags: Burning Fossil Fuels, Burning Of Fossil Fuels, Carbon Dioxide In The Atmosphere, Greenhouse Effect, Infrared Radiation, Solar Radiation | Comments Closed
Small steps to avoid serious risk (Global Warming)
Continuation of the previous article on “The effects of global warming on health.” WHO (World Health Organization) and the World Health Organisation brought the issue to the theme of World Health Day in 2008, the health of climate change and protects the health of climate change. Real health problem is a problem “downstream” global warming (Global Warming) and climate change (Climate Change). Upstream there are problems in other areas, the first to the impact. Doctors and other medical professionals to “a dishwasher” when to treat only. Therefore, it is more important is the use of adaptation to climate change in this place and the efforts to reduce the negative effects of a variety of preventive measures to reduce the reduction has taken over.
Speaking of preventive measures, many point out that the self is not ready noted. Not ready to be used for hybrid cars is not not ready, not with the AC, ready to use the computer for long. But only a few different steps to prevent global warming.
One gets the impression that I think is quite wrong, effort, global warming is often equated to prevent the return to the Stone Age. Do not use a plane during a trip, do not use computers, do not use motor vehicles and many more not the other. It is important in the prevention of global warming, but admit I do not feel that our efforts for global warming on the maintenance are not productive in the work. Live, of course. If it is considered necessary to travel by plane, then use. If it is necessary to use a computer utilization. Try, we demonstrate the use of a “reasonable”. If not used, the disabled.
A small step is a giant step
A few months ago, when electrical energy crisis in Bali, PLN an ordinary 5-watt lamp to drive off in the night between the hours of 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. hours because it transformed the peak hour flow. It was a little right? Only a 5-watt light bulb. But if the whole would take care of Bali to turn off the usual 5-watt lamp, the electrical energy crisis be solved. A small step is a big leap, one small step is done early is a big leap into the future. Do not hesitate to do little things for the good in the future. So hope to inspire every person in an effort to make global warming participate.
Online payday loans: Solutions for Financial Dilemma
The way for us to have an emergency where we need financial help quickly. People are often faced with the dilemma financial emergencies fall. An online payday loan can be an effective solution for this type of financial dilemma.
An online payday loan is a loan, a small short-term costs to the borrower until the next payday to cover. Borrower’s loan to the lender for the amount borrowed plus the agreed fee.
It is not always easy for a bank loan for urgent expenses and small apply. However, a small amount as possible and documentation formalities, the application for credit is often more difficult than helpful. Moreover, if we approve a loan, both problems are solved or can be larger. An online payday loan is hassle free and instant way of financial assistance.
Get what you get with the economic crisis, people will soon need no more of their salary, before the next payday. However, payment may be trivial, for emergencies like medical bills, car repairs, EMI, etc. That would in some cases. Whatever the situation may be, to help for online payday loans by financial support in time.
It is cheaper and more secure payday loan online allows us to obtain short-term loan online without offline secure document exchange, without any difficulty. Because these transactions take place online, online payday loan allows borrowers to receive their loans at lower cost than an offline payment methods, lenders and traditional lenders.
Easy to use a payday loan online is easy process as the traditional business loan. Since most of the credit process is distributed online, the borrower can get loan payments from the comfort of your own home. The documentation and verification do not interfere with a traditional loan transaction.
Many people suffer from the potential benefits of online loan payment immediately after the emergency need for financial support. Payday loan is an efficient solution to the financial dilemma because they need a loan to a consistent source of income – your salary expectations. Online payday loans to get a quick, safe and easy financial assistance in an emergency.
Posted in global warming | Tags: Financial Dilemma, Financial Emergencies, Offline Payment Methods, Online Payday Loan, Online Payday Loans, Salary Expectations | Comments Closed